Thursday, April 25, 2019

CDC Says "Kissing Bug" Sighted in Colorado

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This bug looks remarkably similar to box elder bugs. If you have box elder trees in your yard you should be familiar with the hordes of bugs produced every year.

The kissing bug carries Chagas, a potentially deadly disease that can be transmitted to people and dogs in contact with the bug. As opposed to box elder bugs, the kissing bug bites, usually around the mouth area so the chances of transmission are low even if bitten because the parasite is in the feces of the kissing bug. Toddlers and dogs may be the most susceptible.

CDC Detail Sheet

Tuesday, February 19, 2019

Scientists Warn Rare "Atmospheric River" Storm in LA Could Cause Catastrophic Damage

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Storm in 1862 dropped 36" of rain on LA over a 45 day period. A similar storm would overtop and collapse the Whittier Narrows Dam and cause an estimated $750 billion in damages downstream.

This story highlights the problems with traditional statistical methods used to forecast rare storms. As a young engineer, I worked on the National Flood Insurance Program in Minnesota running the first hydrologic models to determine the 100 year flood plain in the 1970s. At that time, many of the small towns in Minnesota had only 30 or 40 years of weather data to forecast what the 100 year flood would be. It was done with total linear thinking, using a standard statistical analysis that assumed the 30 or 40 years worth of data was typical of the past 500 years and can be used to forecast the next 500 years. Not only is that assumption wrong but the entire presentation of the average condition (called normal) and the "once in 100 year flood" are completely misleading and incorrect. The average or normal is a rainfall or temperature that only happens 1 time in 100 with about 50% the time being lower and 50% higher. The bell curve shows the probability of a rainfall event expressed as the percent chance it will occur in any given year. The 100 year flood is the flood that has a 1% chance of happening next year, not the flood that happens once every 100 years. In rare circumstances the "100 year flood" can happen 2 years in a row or may not happen for 200 years. The only way to determine long term hydrologic cycles is the study of tree ring data correlated with river levels.

This same problem of linear thinking plagues the attempts to predict global warming and is one of the reasons that models predicting temperature changes since the 1990's have not been accurate.

Saturday, February 9, 2019

Conservationist Studies Mountain Lion Behavior with 30 Trail Cameras

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Observes that mountain lion attacks are rare and the few that do are when the mountain lion does not recognize you as human. That is certainly the case for juvenile mountain lions that have either a genetic defect or its mom didn't train it enough or correctly to differentiate people from prey. In my mind, recognition of people is a learned trait reinforced by bad experiences that is handed down from one generation of mountain lions to the next. I am pretty sure if humans were passive and docile when attacked that mountain lions would happily make people part of their diet. There have been a few cases where mountain lion attacks have happened when hikers have stumbled upon a cat eating a deer. These are mature mountain lions that would otherwise avoid people and attack to protect their food stash.

Friday, February 8, 2019

Wednesday, February 6, 2019

Details of Man's Fight With Mountain Lion Amazing!

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The link to the Denver Post has a paywall so I'll try and recap.

The best recap I can come up with is think tiger attacks unarmed gladiator in the Colosseum.

The man was running on a trail and the juvenile mountain lion approached him from behind as cougars do with all prey. The runner faced the cougar and did all the right things, yelling and putting his hands over his head to look big but the cat attacked anyway. It may have looked something like this
Video

The cat jumped on him and tried to secure him as they do with all their prey by trying to clamp down on his neck. The man blocked the cat with his forearm and the cat clamped down on the forearm. The wrestling match to the death began. The man reached out with his free hand, grabbed a rock and pummeled the cat's head but the cat hung on to his forearm. The fierce wrestling continued and the runner managed to take his free arm and put the cat in a headlock. The headlock eventually forced the cat to release his forearm and the man quickly reversed his position to get on top of the cat and put a double arm chokehold on its neck and double leg hold on its body. Squeezing with all his might, the cat was suffocated.

What a story! It will be interesting to see if this man has a wrestling background or just instinctively knew what to do.

Just remember you saw it here first when the news stories start reporting it this way.

Tuesday, February 5, 2019

Trail Runner in Fort Collins Attacked by Mountain Lion, Fights Back and Kills Mountain Lion

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An incredible story - hearing the details from the man attacked will be interesting. Mountain lion attacks are very rare in Colorado. Fighting back has saved the life of attack victims in the past but killing the mountain lion bare-handed has to be a first. This attack is consistent with most of the attacks that have happened in the past. A very small percentage of juvenile mountain lions that have just gone out on their own to establish its' territory gets it terribly wrong on their food source.

Sunday, January 20, 2019

Saturday, January 19, 2019

Wednesday, January 16, 2019

Tuesday, January 8, 2019

Mountain Lions Attacking Pets in Glenwood Springs Area

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3 Injured in Cortez Crash During Snowstorm

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Cortez doesn't get much snow.

3 Mountain Lions Spotted on Driveway near Boulder

Video

Summit County Officials Warn Visitors, Residents to Keep Their Distance from Moose

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Mountain Biker Gets Rare Glimpse of Mountain Lion in Colorado Springs

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This Is the Time-of-Year That Coyotes Get Aggressive with People and Dogs

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Most coyote attacks occur in January during mating season.

High Winds Fuel Grass Fire Near Strasburg

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Wind Gusts Shift Southwest Jet While Passengers Are Deplaning at DIA

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No one hurt but this is the first time I have seen something like this reported.

Skier Dies at Breckenridge

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Cause unknown, no obvious signs of collision.

Winds Over 70 MPH and Snow - High Avalanche Danger Warning for Colorado Mountains West of Continental Divide

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Monday, January 7, 2019

Thursday, January 3, 2019

Car Plunges 130 Feet Off Red Mountain Pass, 1 Seriously Injured

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Not wearing a seat belt. Anyone that has driven that extremely narrow and exposed section of the Million Dollar Highway has experienced that sense of vertigo when you glance over the edge.

1 to 2 Feet of Snow Dumps on San Juans to Start New Year

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34" at Wolf Creek Pass, snowpack now at 68% of average gaining on severe drought conditions.

Tuesday, January 1, 2019

New Year Begins With Snow and Subzero Temps

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Colorado Natural Hazards in 2018 Dominated by Drought, Wildfires and Smoke

2018 was similar to last year with drought and wildfires more intense than 2017 and less intense but comparable to the previous record holders of 2002 and 2012-13. Drought conditions kicked off the new year in January with record low snowpack in the mountains at only 21% of the median value for January 1 resulting in record low snowmelt streamflow in the Colorado River at Grand Junction. High winds and dry conditions fueled the start of wildfire season early in March with 10 small wildfires reported across the lower elevations of Colorado during March. High winds continued throughout April, knocking down trees, powerlines and semi trucks.

It was wilder and wetter in May with an outbreak of damaging tornadoes and hailstorms. More than 10,000 insurance claims were filed after hail up to 3" demolished cars and roofs in Colorado Springs and Fountain. By the end of May record heat intensified drought conditions to a point that allowed 3 major wildfires to start near Durango, Fairplay and Fort Garland that eventually burned over 175,000 acres and were not extinguished until November.  The Spring Wildfire was started by a Danish man who cooked some meat in an outdoor, unlined fire pit at his cabin near the town of La Veta. This man is in big trouble - in the US illegally, started an open fire during a fire ban, and has been charged with 141 counts (for each home destroyed) of arson. The 108,000 acre Spring Wildfire was the 3rd largest in Colorado, nearly eclipsing the West Fork Wildfire's 110,000 acres in 2013 and the 138,000 acre Hayman Wildfire in 2002 also started by an arsonist.

As the summer of 2018 progressed, more than 2,000 wildfires started in Colorado - most were less than 100 acres and quickly contained. 10 wildfires eventually grew to over 10,000 acres in size - List
430,000 acres burned and 450 homes were lost in 2018,  less than half the 926,000 acres burned in 2002. With fires came weeks of heavy, unhealthy smoke from Colorado and the Pacific Northwest best summarized in a post on August 20. Colorado officials discovered that half of Coloradoans live in areas at risk of wildfires.

Life went on as usual for bad bears as they broke into cars throughout Colorado in search of donuts and anything edible. It wouldn't be such a big deal if the clumsy critters didn't completely destroy the interior of the cars during their frantic search. Subarus continue to be the most popular target with  particularly ambitious bears in Steamboat Springs breaking into 5 vehicles.

The rabies epidemic in wildlife that started in 2017 continued through 2018 as a recent headline highlights: "El Paso County Has 6X the Average Number of Wildlife Rabies Cases This Year". 21 people in Greeley were vaccinated after exposure to a rabid racoon. West Nile cases didn't get started until late August but ramped up to 94 cases of West Nile reported for Colorado in 2018 with 2 deaths.

Climbing incidents declined from 2017's record number. Longs Peak took the lead in 2018 from Capitol Peak in 2017 as the most frequent site of climbing falls. An Air Force cadet last seen on the Longs Peak trail has not been found after extensive search and rescue efforts in October. Skiing and avalanche incidents also declined from 2017.  7 skiers and 1 snowmobiler were killed in 2018 after hitting trees. 5 skiers and 1 snowmobiler were killed in backcountry avalanches and an additional 3 skiers were injured.

Happy New Year to all the outdoor enthusiasts that visit or live in Colorado. Over time, ongoing educational efforts by Colorado officials and blogs like this one are helping people avoid serious harm from random acts of nature.