News Link
This bug looks remarkably similar to box elder bugs. If you have box elder trees in your yard you should be familiar with the hordes of bugs produced every year.
The kissing bug carries Chagas, a potentially deadly disease that can be transmitted to people and dogs in contact with the bug. As opposed to box elder bugs, the kissing bug bites, usually around the mouth area so the chances of transmission are low even if bitten because the parasite is in the feces of the kissing bug. Toddlers and dogs may be the most susceptible.
CDC Detail Sheet
Thursday, April 25, 2019
Sunday, February 24, 2019
Saturday, February 23, 2019
Tuesday, February 19, 2019
Scientists Warn Rare "Atmospheric River" Storm in LA Could Cause Catastrophic Damage
News Link
Storm in 1862 dropped 36" of rain on LA over a 45 day period. A similar storm would overtop and collapse the Whittier Narrows Dam and cause an estimated $750 billion in damages downstream.
This story highlights the problems with traditional statistical methods used to forecast rare storms. As a young engineer, I worked on the National Flood Insurance Program in Minnesota running the first hydrologic models to determine the 100 year flood plain in the 1970s. At that time, many of the small towns in Minnesota had only 30 or 40 years of weather data to forecast what the 100 year flood would be. It was done with total linear thinking, using a standard statistical analysis that assumed the 30 or 40 years worth of data was typical of the past 500 years and can be used to forecast the next 500 years. Not only is that assumption wrong but the entire presentation of the average condition (called normal) and the "once in 100 year flood" are completely misleading and incorrect. The average or normal is a rainfall or temperature that only happens 1 time in 100 with about 50% the time being lower and 50% higher. The bell curve shows the probability of a rainfall event expressed as the percent chance it will occur in any given year. The 100 year flood is the flood that has a 1% chance of happening next year, not the flood that happens once every 100 years. In rare circumstances the "100 year flood" can happen 2 years in a row or may not happen for 200 years. The only way to determine long term hydrologic cycles is the study of tree ring data correlated with river levels.
This same problem of linear thinking plagues the attempts to predict global warming and is one of the reasons that models predicting temperature changes since the 1990's have not been accurate.
Storm in 1862 dropped 36" of rain on LA over a 45 day period. A similar storm would overtop and collapse the Whittier Narrows Dam and cause an estimated $750 billion in damages downstream.
This story highlights the problems with traditional statistical methods used to forecast rare storms. As a young engineer, I worked on the National Flood Insurance Program in Minnesota running the first hydrologic models to determine the 100 year flood plain in the 1970s. At that time, many of the small towns in Minnesota had only 30 or 40 years of weather data to forecast what the 100 year flood would be. It was done with total linear thinking, using a standard statistical analysis that assumed the 30 or 40 years worth of data was typical of the past 500 years and can be used to forecast the next 500 years. Not only is that assumption wrong but the entire presentation of the average condition (called normal) and the "once in 100 year flood" are completely misleading and incorrect. The average or normal is a rainfall or temperature that only happens 1 time in 100 with about 50% the time being lower and 50% higher. The bell curve shows the probability of a rainfall event expressed as the percent chance it will occur in any given year. The 100 year flood is the flood that has a 1% chance of happening next year, not the flood that happens once every 100 years. In rare circumstances the "100 year flood" can happen 2 years in a row or may not happen for 200 years. The only way to determine long term hydrologic cycles is the study of tree ring data correlated with river levels.
This same problem of linear thinking plagues the attempts to predict global warming and is one of the reasons that models predicting temperature changes since the 1990's have not been accurate.
Tuesday, February 12, 2019
Saturday, February 9, 2019
Conservationist Studies Mountain Lion Behavior with 30 Trail Cameras
News Link
Observes that mountain lion attacks are rare and the few that do are when the mountain lion does not recognize you as human. That is certainly the case for juvenile mountain lions that have either a genetic defect or its mom didn't train it enough or correctly to differentiate people from prey. In my mind, recognition of people is a learned trait reinforced by bad experiences that is handed down from one generation of mountain lions to the next. I am pretty sure if humans were passive and docile when attacked that mountain lions would happily make people part of their diet. There have been a few cases where mountain lion attacks have happened when hikers have stumbled upon a cat eating a deer. These are mature mountain lions that would otherwise avoid people and attack to protect their food stash.
Friday, February 8, 2019
Cold Weather Causes Major Natural Gas Line in Summit County to Lose Pressure
News Link
The line is owned by XCEL. XCEL responded with rolling blackouts to force a reduction in gas usage for heating (furnaces require electricity to operate). Service was cut to 15,000 customers and shut down the lifts at Breckenridge and Keystone.
Thursday, February 7, 2019
Wednesday, February 6, 2019
Details of Man's Fight With Mountain Lion Amazing!
News Link
The link to the Denver Post has a paywall so I'll try and recap.
The best recap I can come up with is think tiger attacks unarmed gladiator in the Colosseum.
The man was running on a trail and the juvenile mountain lion approached him from behind as cougars do with all prey. The runner faced the cougar and did all the right things, yelling and putting his hands over his head to look big but the cat attacked anyway. It may have looked something like this
Video
The cat jumped on him and tried to secure him as they do with all their prey by trying to clamp down on his neck. The man blocked the cat with his forearm and the cat clamped down on the forearm. The wrestling match to the death began. The man reached out with his free hand, grabbed a rock and pummeled the cat's head but the cat hung on to his forearm. The fierce wrestling continued and the runner managed to take his free arm and put the cat in a headlock. The headlock eventually forced the cat to release his forearm and the man quickly reversed his position to get on top of the cat and put a double arm chokehold on its neck and double leg hold on its body. Squeezing with all his might, the cat was suffocated.
What a story! It will be interesting to see if this man has a wrestling background or just instinctively knew what to do.
Just remember you saw it here first when the news stories start reporting it this way.
The link to the Denver Post has a paywall so I'll try and recap.
The best recap I can come up with is think tiger attacks unarmed gladiator in the Colosseum.
The man was running on a trail and the juvenile mountain lion approached him from behind as cougars do with all prey. The runner faced the cougar and did all the right things, yelling and putting his hands over his head to look big but the cat attacked anyway. It may have looked something like this
Video
The cat jumped on him and tried to secure him as they do with all their prey by trying to clamp down on his neck. The man blocked the cat with his forearm and the cat clamped down on the forearm. The wrestling match to the death began. The man reached out with his free hand, grabbed a rock and pummeled the cat's head but the cat hung on to his forearm. The fierce wrestling continued and the runner managed to take his free arm and put the cat in a headlock. The headlock eventually forced the cat to release his forearm and the man quickly reversed his position to get on top of the cat and put a double arm chokehold on its neck and double leg hold on its body. Squeezing with all his might, the cat was suffocated.
What a story! It will be interesting to see if this man has a wrestling background or just instinctively knew what to do.
Just remember you saw it here first when the news stories start reporting it this way.
Tuesday, February 5, 2019
Trail Runner in Fort Collins Attacked by Mountain Lion, Fights Back and Kills Mountain Lion
News Link
An incredible story - hearing the details from the man attacked will be interesting. Mountain lion attacks are very rare in Colorado. Fighting back has saved the life of attack victims in the past but killing the mountain lion bare-handed has to be a first. This attack is consistent with most of the attacks that have happened in the past. A very small percentage of juvenile mountain lions that have just gone out on their own to establish its' territory gets it terribly wrong on their food source.
An incredible story - hearing the details from the man attacked will be interesting. Mountain lion attacks are very rare in Colorado. Fighting back has saved the life of attack victims in the past but killing the mountain lion bare-handed has to be a first. This attack is consistent with most of the attacks that have happened in the past. A very small percentage of juvenile mountain lions that have just gone out on their own to establish its' territory gets it terribly wrong on their food source.
Sunday, February 3, 2019
Saturday, February 2, 2019
Friday, February 1, 2019
Wednesday, January 30, 2019
Tuesday, January 29, 2019
Sunday, January 27, 2019
Saturday, January 26, 2019
Friday, January 25, 2019
Thursday, January 24, 2019
Wednesday, January 23, 2019
Monday, January 21, 2019
Sunday, January 20, 2019
Saturday, January 19, 2019
Friday, January 18, 2019
Thursday, January 17, 2019
CAIC Completes Investigation of Avalanche School Skier Killed in Slide on Red Mountain Pass
News Link
“The group failed to plan and execute their descent in a way that minimized their exposure to a potential avalanche and that allowed the members to communicate."
Wednesday, January 16, 2019
Tuesday, January 15, 2019
Monday, January 14, 2019
Sunday, January 13, 2019
Saturday, January 12, 2019
Thursday, January 10, 2019
Wednesday, January 9, 2019
Frisco Park Offers Backcountry Skiers Chance to Practice Beacon Finding Skills
News Link
A good idea - Forest Service rep comments that many people have the equipment but don't know how to operate it properly.
Tuesday, January 8, 2019
Monday, January 7, 2019
Avalanche School Student Dies in Avalanche During Training Exercise on Red Mountain Pass
News Link
Investigation underway. What in the world were they doing there during High Danger Avalanche Warning?
Sunday, January 6, 2019
Firefighters Rescue Dog That Chased Ducks on Icy Lake in Westminster
News Link
Pretty wimpy compared to the Golden Retriever in Lakewood. Didn't even go through the ice.
Saturday, January 5, 2019
Friday, January 4, 2019
Where to See Bald Eagles During Their Annual Visit to Colorado
News Link
Generally, you can see bald and golden eagles during the winter along the Front Range in cottonwoods near lakes or reservoirs.
Generally, you can see bald and golden eagles during the winter along the Front Range in cottonwoods near lakes or reservoirs.
Thursday, January 3, 2019
Car Plunges 130 Feet Off Red Mountain Pass, 1 Seriously Injured
News Link
Not wearing a seat belt. Anyone that has driven that extremely narrow and exposed section of the Million Dollar Highway has experienced that sense of vertigo when you glance over the edge.
1 to 2 Feet of Snow Dumps on San Juans to Start New Year
News Link
34" at Wolf Creek Pass, snowpack now at 68% of average gaining on severe drought conditions.
34" at Wolf Creek Pass, snowpack now at 68% of average gaining on severe drought conditions.
Wednesday, January 2, 2019
Tuesday, January 1, 2019
Colorado Natural Hazards in 2018 Dominated by Drought, Wildfires and Smoke
2018 was similar to last year with drought and wildfires more intense than 2017 and less intense but comparable to the previous record holders of 2002 and 2012-13. Drought conditions kicked off the new year in January with record low snowpack in the mountains at only 21% of the median value for January 1 resulting in record low snowmelt streamflow in the Colorado River at Grand Junction. High winds and dry conditions fueled the start of wildfire season early in March with 10 small wildfires reported across the lower elevations of Colorado during March. High winds continued throughout April, knocking down trees, powerlines and semi trucks.
It was wilder and wetter in May with an outbreak of damaging tornadoes and hailstorms. More than 10,000 insurance claims were filed after hail up to 3" demolished cars and roofs in Colorado Springs and Fountain. By the end of May record heat intensified drought conditions to a point that allowed 3 major wildfires to start near Durango, Fairplay and Fort Garland that eventually burned over 175,000 acres and were not extinguished until November. The Spring Wildfire was started by a Danish man who cooked some meat in an outdoor, unlined fire pit at his cabin near the town of La Veta. This man is in big trouble - in the US illegally, started an open fire during a fire ban, and has been charged with 141 counts (for each home destroyed) of arson. The 108,000 acre Spring Wildfire was the 3rd largest in Colorado, nearly eclipsing the West Fork Wildfire's 110,000 acres in 2013 and the 138,000 acre Hayman Wildfire in 2002 also started by an arsonist.
As the summer of 2018 progressed, more than 2,000 wildfires started in Colorado - most were less than 100 acres and quickly contained. 10 wildfires eventually grew to over 10,000 acres in size - List
430,000 acres burned and 450 homes were lost in 2018, less than half the 926,000 acres burned in 2002. With fires came weeks of heavy, unhealthy smoke from Colorado and the Pacific Northwest best summarized in a post on August 20. Colorado officials discovered that half of Coloradoans live in areas at risk of wildfires.
Life went on as usual for bad bears as they broke into cars throughout Colorado in search of donuts and anything edible. It wouldn't be such a big deal if the clumsy critters didn't completely destroy the interior of the cars during their frantic search. Subarus continue to be the most popular target with particularly ambitious bears in Steamboat Springs breaking into 5 vehicles.
The rabies epidemic in wildlife that started in 2017 continued through 2018 as a recent headline highlights: "El Paso County Has 6X the Average Number of Wildlife Rabies Cases This Year". 21 people in Greeley were vaccinated after exposure to a rabid racoon. West Nile cases didn't get started until late August but ramped up to 94 cases of West Nile reported for Colorado in 2018 with 2 deaths.
Climbing incidents declined from 2017's record number. Longs Peak took the lead in 2018 from Capitol Peak in 2017 as the most frequent site of climbing falls. An Air Force cadet last seen on the Longs Peak trail has not been found after extensive search and rescue efforts in October. Skiing and avalanche incidents also declined from 2017. 7 skiers and 1 snowmobiler were killed in 2018 after hitting trees. 5 skiers and 1 snowmobiler were killed in backcountry avalanches and an additional 3 skiers were injured.
Happy New Year to all the outdoor enthusiasts that visit or live in Colorado. Over time, ongoing educational efforts by Colorado officials and blogs like this one are helping people avoid serious harm from random acts of nature.
It was wilder and wetter in May with an outbreak of damaging tornadoes and hailstorms. More than 10,000 insurance claims were filed after hail up to 3" demolished cars and roofs in Colorado Springs and Fountain. By the end of May record heat intensified drought conditions to a point that allowed 3 major wildfires to start near Durango, Fairplay and Fort Garland that eventually burned over 175,000 acres and were not extinguished until November. The Spring Wildfire was started by a Danish man who cooked some meat in an outdoor, unlined fire pit at his cabin near the town of La Veta. This man is in big trouble - in the US illegally, started an open fire during a fire ban, and has been charged with 141 counts (for each home destroyed) of arson. The 108,000 acre Spring Wildfire was the 3rd largest in Colorado, nearly eclipsing the West Fork Wildfire's 110,000 acres in 2013 and the 138,000 acre Hayman Wildfire in 2002 also started by an arsonist.
As the summer of 2018 progressed, more than 2,000 wildfires started in Colorado - most were less than 100 acres and quickly contained. 10 wildfires eventually grew to over 10,000 acres in size - List
430,000 acres burned and 450 homes were lost in 2018, less than half the 926,000 acres burned in 2002. With fires came weeks of heavy, unhealthy smoke from Colorado and the Pacific Northwest best summarized in a post on August 20. Colorado officials discovered that half of Coloradoans live in areas at risk of wildfires.
Life went on as usual for bad bears as they broke into cars throughout Colorado in search of donuts and anything edible. It wouldn't be such a big deal if the clumsy critters didn't completely destroy the interior of the cars during their frantic search. Subarus continue to be the most popular target with particularly ambitious bears in Steamboat Springs breaking into 5 vehicles.
The rabies epidemic in wildlife that started in 2017 continued through 2018 as a recent headline highlights: "El Paso County Has 6X the Average Number of Wildlife Rabies Cases This Year". 21 people in Greeley were vaccinated after exposure to a rabid racoon. West Nile cases didn't get started until late August but ramped up to 94 cases of West Nile reported for Colorado in 2018 with 2 deaths.
Climbing incidents declined from 2017's record number. Longs Peak took the lead in 2018 from Capitol Peak in 2017 as the most frequent site of climbing falls. An Air Force cadet last seen on the Longs Peak trail has not been found after extensive search and rescue efforts in October. Skiing and avalanche incidents also declined from 2017. 7 skiers and 1 snowmobiler were killed in 2018 after hitting trees. 5 skiers and 1 snowmobiler were killed in backcountry avalanches and an additional 3 skiers were injured.
Happy New Year to all the outdoor enthusiasts that visit or live in Colorado. Over time, ongoing educational efforts by Colorado officials and blogs like this one are helping people avoid serious harm from random acts of nature.
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