Friday, November 15, 2013

Atlantic Hurricane Season Quietest in 45 Years

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The number of US tornadoes was also the 2nd lowest in the past 25 years, while Colorado had 19 through the end of July, headed toward the lowest number of tornadoes since 1978.
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I took a look at the hurricane and tornado records to see if there is any correlation of hurricane activity with tornadoes in Colorado. Tornado records in Colorado only go back to 1950 and the number of tornadoes observed prior to 1975 is probably lower than the actual number because weather satellites weren't in place.


Every type of severe weather is following its own cycle independent of temperature. Average temperature has been steadily increasing since 1970, while hurricanes and tropical storms go through a regular 60 to 70 year cycle of increasing and decreasing. Hurricanes making landfall peaked around 10 years ago and have since been declining at the largest rate since records have been kept.  Tornadoes in Colorado peaked around 1995 and have been declining since that time.  There's not enough record, but it appears that Colorado tornadoes also come and go on a long term cycle of 60 to 70 years. Floods and droughts occur on regular cycles that are different from the other types of weather, although droughts usually (but not always) correlate with years that annual temperature is much higher than the 11 year average.

So despite the claims of some that warming air temperatures have caused more and unusual severe weather in Colorado, the record indicates that cycles continue onward and are probably more related to ocean currents like La Nina and El Nino weather patterns and lots of other factors. The floods around Boulder this year came after a long absence of severe floods on the Front Range but a review of the longer term record shows that severe flooding has occurred on a regular basis. The same is true for droughts.

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