Bear-Vehicle Collision on I-25 Near Wellington

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Some Words of Wisdom: Reflections on the Flood of September 2013

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Yellowstone Making Unusual Rumbles

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First West Nile Case in El Paso County This Year

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Hiker Encounter with Mountain Lion near Bailey

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All Accounted for in Flood Search

8 have died and 1 is missing and presumed dead.
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Preliminary Flood Assessment Published by NOAA, CSU and CU

Boulder Creek about a 1 in 50 year flood, other rivers had 1 in 100 year events. New records set for flood level on Big Thompson and St. Vrain Rivers.
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If history is any guide, Boulder can expect 1, or maybe 2 severe floods in the next 10 years.

Backhoe Operator Saved a Horse Last Week by Scooping it Out of Mudslide

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Fountain Woman Hospitalized with West Nile

The Colorado Department of Health has 175 cases and 3 deaths in Colorado for 2013 as of September 18.
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Flood Victim: Body of Missing 79-Year-Old Man Found

Unaccounted for down to 6, may be added to missing and presumed dead.
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Moose in Broomfield Tranquilized, Relocated to Mountains

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Black Bear Hanging Out on North Side of Colorado Springs

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Goat-Poaching Mountain Lion near Newcastle Euthanized by Wildlife Officials

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Lyons Residents May not be Able to Return to their Homes for 6 Months

Lyons is completely cutoff by bridge outages, sheriff says he just read Steven King's "under the Dome" and it is very similar. 288 photos at the bottom of the article.
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First West Nile Case in Pueblo County

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Moose Wanders through Broomfield Neighborhood

Colorado Wildlife officials are warning that moose can get agressive when people or dogs get too close after 3 incidents in Coloraod this year.
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Larimer County: 3rd Person Missing, Presumed Dead

A 46-year-old man's house washed away in the town of Drake in Big Thompson Canyon. 1,200 rescued, 139 remain unaccounted for.
Sheriff's Facebook Page

The Problem with Flood Statistics for the Front Range

There have been a lot of confusing statements made about 1 in 500 year floods and 1 in 1,000 year rainfall events after last week's floods. Some examples are here and here. Rainfall totals set records and some people equate rainfall totals with the severity of flooding but flooding severity depends on the rate of rainfall, what hydrologists call the rainfall intensity. I know a little bit about this subject - I started my career as a hydrologist at an engineering firm in Minneapolis that was founded by Adolf Meyer, a pioneer and founding father of modern methods of analysis in hydrology.  The 1965 flood had many locations throughout a week of rain that had rainfall intensities of 14 inches in 4 hours.  Big Thompson Canyon had a similar rainfall intensity in 1976. This past week in the Boulder area, the maximum rainfall intensity was about 12 inches in 19 hours, only about 1/4 the intensity of the most severe floods Colorado has experienced.  A rough analogy for the effect of rainfall intensity on flooding severity is the bathtub in your home. With the drain open, turn on the faucet and the water level might rise slightly over the drain but the drain removes everything that is coming in - about 3 gallons a minute . Add a garden hose and double the amount of water going in, the level in the bathtub will slowly rise and may eventually overtop the tub after awhile. Take a fire hose and pump in 20 gallons per minute and within a few minutes the tub is flowing over and your house floors are underwater. That's the difference between rainfall intensity and rainfall totals. In each case, you can pour 500 gallons (the equivalent of the rainfall total) into the bathtub but the effects are quite different depending on the rate at which you pour it in.  In September, 1938, a flood that had maximum flow rates in Boulder Creek similar to this week was caused by rainfall totals of only 4 to 5 inches.

 It was a bit further south and hit Eldorado Springs and South Boulder Creek quite hard.  You can read about it here.  Most of the rain fell in 4 hours on September 4, after days of rain saturated the ground. 

What's the difference between 1938 and 2013? - there are over 5 million people living in Colorado now compared to 1 million in 1938. Here is an air photo of north Boulder in 1938 where Fourmile Canyon Creek comes out of the foothills. 

Here is the same area today that was badly damaged by flooding from Fourmile Canyon Creek last week.

The weather condition that produces large rainfall and flooding events along the Front Range is called an upslope - when moist tropical air from the south streams up to a stationary cold front and stalls against the Rockies for days at a time. How many times do the upslope conditions setup along the Front Range? - several times a year. How many times have upslopes caused major floods along the Front Range in the past 120 years? - over 30 times. How many times on Boulder Creek? - 10 times including this year.  

Clearly, there is a disconnect between reality and the statistical methods being used, perhaps best summed up by a guest ranch operator in Big Thompson Canyon News Link:

"When we first saw this, you know, you kind of go through this sequence of emotions. First is unbelief. I mean, you just can't imagine that you would have two 500-year floods in the span of 30 years," he said.

So - the bottom line is upslope conditions that can can cause catastrophic flooding anywhere along the Front Range can occur as often as every 2 to 3 years. The longest period without severe, damaging floods was 1948 to 1965, 17 years. The second longest period was the current one, 1997 - 2013.  Topography favors some locations more than others for flooding, like Boulder, which has had severe flooding in 1894, 1906, 1909, 1916, 1929, 1938, 1941, 1969, and of course 2013.

Some Landslide Photos from the USGS

My wife Lynn is the Director of the Landslide Information Center at the US Geological Survey in Golden. She sent me some photos from the recon team out in the field from last week's floods.

Flood Toll Now Up to 8

A man was found in the West Fork of Sand Creek in Colorado Springs on Monday.
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South Platte Flood Wave Reaches Nebraska Today

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Rockslide in Norwood Canyon near Telluride

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Portal to Cheyenne Mountain Blocked by Massive Mudslide Last Week

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Rockslide on Monarch Pass Closes Hwy 50 Briefly

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Flood Wave Reaches Sterling on South Platte

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Will Last Week's Floods Increase West Nile Exposure?

Temperatures will be warming up this week with a whole lot of standing water available for mosquitoes to breed.

State Meteorologist Says This Flood not Quite as Bad as 1965

..but they don't know for sure and are asking for rainfall information from the public so they can make a detailed map of rainfall intensities and rain totals.
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1,500 Homes Destroyed; 17,000 Homes Damaged; 1,200 Unaccounted For

The latest estimates from Emergency management officials suggest that total damages from the Great Flood of 2013 will exceed $1 billion but may not match the damage done by the June, 1965 flood in Denver. Clear weather will allow a massive air search to get underway today to search for the unaccounted individuals.
News Link   Photos

This Storm and Flooding Similar to June, 1965

Let's get a look at the scale and area affected by heavy rainfall this week.

This map shows the area and the many rivers, creeks, towns and counties where the most severe flooding has happened in the past week. Flooding occurred over a much larger area in the state last week including Colorado Springs and the west slope. The upslope weather pattern and rainfall amounts this week are similar to the week of June 14-20, 1965.  The difference is that in 1965, the most intense rainfall was centered more over the eastern plains and further south, it extended all the way to the southern border flooding both the South Platte and Arkansas River basins. Here is a summary of what happened in 1965 by NCAR.  It is quite lengthy but if you read it, the story is similar to what happened this week - rain over much of the state with intense storms that developed in different places throughout the week causing severe flooding.  Southern Douglas County had an incredible 14 inches of rain in 4 hours on June 16, 1965 that caused Plum Creek's stream flow to increase 1,000-fold from 150 cfs to 154,000 cfs in 3 hours! 14 inches in 4 hours is close to the rainfall intensity that produced the 1976 Thompson Canyon disaster that killed 144 people. Rainfall intensity this week was much lower, with 12 inches in 19 hours in the Boulder area. Boulder Creek this week saw increased stream flow of 150 cfs to about 5,000 cfs, or about a 30-fold increase.

The June, 1965 flood was the most damaging in Colorado history and considered to be one of the worst floods ever in the US. Damages were mostly in the Denver area at over $3 billion in today's dollars. This week's flood may take over the #1 spot when it's all said and done. Boulder County has a preliminary estimate of $150 million just to repair 100 to 150 miles of road and 20 to 30 bridges. The roads up Big Thompson Canyon and along the St. Vrain upstream of Lyons in Larimer County appear to be washed out and there are thousands of homes and businesses that have sustained serious flood damage.

This week was bad, and a rare storm event, but not unprecedented for the Front Range.

The Story of the First 2 Victims of the Boulder Floods

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Water Moving East

Photos of Flooding Bear Creek Lake to Aurora

In this article  News Link    there is this short statement:

"In Denver Friday morning, a man walking a dog was sucked down a water culvert near East 13th Avenue and Xenia Street, said Sonny Jackson, a Denver Police Department spokesman. The man washed out the pipe a few blocks away."

I guess the guy lived, otherwise it would have been reported. Incredible! and what happened to the dog?

Record flood stage on South Platte
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Rainfall totals are now similar to those of the 1965 flood on the South Platte River.

Evacuations underway near Wiggins
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Larimer County Sheriff's Office - 482 Unaccounted For, 2 Elderly Woman Missing Presumed Dead

Facebook Page
Check out the nearly one hour of flyover video. It looks like most of the roads in the canyons have been washed away.

Jeffco Sheriff's Map of Flooding, Road Washouts and Rockslides

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Mountain Lion Lounging in Back Yard in Perry Park

Another youngster starting out on his own.
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75-Year-Old Woman Killed After Vehicle Hits Deer

This is sad. An elderly woman's car hit a deer and when she got out to inspect the damage she was struck by another vehicle and killed.
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Downtown Evergreen Ripped Apart

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"Biblical Rain" Is Over for Now - 4 Dead, Over 200 Unaccounted For

Unaccounted for means that friends and relatives have been unable to contact a person and received no response. Most are probably OK but undoubtedly a few more tragedies will be discovered in the next few days.
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Here's a good summary of what happened this week.
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PHEW!!

Looks like the rain is over for now at least.

Rain, Flooding Continues Along Front Range

The Front Range from Colorado Springs to Fort Collins continued to see a deluge of rain that washed out roads, produced mudslides and flooded low-lying areas. After 500 students were evacuated from the University of Colorado student housing on Wednesday, thousands of residents were evacuated from areas along Boulder Creek, 4 Mile Creek and north Boulder, where water was running over entire neighborhoods. The residents of communities of Jamestown, Lyons, part of Longmont and Manitou Springs as well as roads up Poudre and Big Thompson Canyons were unable to evacuate and cutoff from assistance and supplies as roads were washed out.
Photo of Mudslide in Jamestown  Longmont 500 Year Flood  Lyons

Sections of I-70 and US 6 in upper Clear Creek Canyon are closed because of rockslides. Sections of I-25 in Fort Collins are closed this morning , flooding was widespread in Aurora, Commerce City, Erie and other eastern plains towns.
Aurora  Erie  East Denver  Commerce City

All That Water Headed Out to Eastern Colorado - South Platte Under Flood Watch

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Another Flood Fatality in Colorado Springs

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Rain Pounding Mountains West of Fort Collins to Loveland

Most roads into the mountains have been closed because of mudslides and flooding.  A small dam broke overnight and the area east of Big Thompson Canyon is under an evacuation order.
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The area has received 5 to 7 inches of rain in 19 hours. The Big Thompson flood of 1976 which killed 144 people, had 12 to 14 inches of rain fall in 4 hours.

Flash Flooding Kills 2 near Boulder

6.5" of rain in 24 hours.
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Boulder Creek has a long history of catastrophic flash floods.  The last large flood was in 1969 but the only other time people were killed by flooding on Boulder Creek was 1909.  There have now been 4 deaths in Colorado from floods this year - the 2 near Boulder, 1 in Manitou Springs and 1 girl in Colorado Springs that sought shelter under a bridge.  These flood fatalities are the first in Colorado since 5 died in the Spring Creek flood in Fort Collins in 1997.

Video of man being saved from car caught in fast-moving floodwaters.  A reminder to never attempt to drive through flooded streets.

A National Weather Service meteorologist says a 20-foot wall of water was reported in Left Hand Canyon north of Boulder. A firefighter was trapped in a tree, and rescuers were trying to get through.
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More firefighters stranded in the mountains after their truck was washed away, rescuers can't get to them because of flooding and roads being washed out, mudslides and rockslides blocking other highways to the mountains.
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Bear and Cub Sample Apple Orchards and Garbage Cans in Alamosa

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Monsoon Continues in Colorado

The monsoon that began in mid-July has continued through mid-September and still going strong producing mudslides, flooding, and heavy hail.  Looks like the drought that started in 2012 will officially be over soon.
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Colorado West Nile Cases at 120 for the Year

Last year there were 131 cases. Half of this year's cases have been in the Longmont to Fort Collins area.
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A Good Article on Botulism Risk in Colorado

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Comet Ison

Comet Ison is 3 miles across and expected to pass close to the sun and possibly be visible in the sky in December and January.
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Scientists don't know if the close pass to the sun will disintegrate the comet, break it into pieces, or come through intact.  If it does break up, isn't it possible for a piece to have a trajectory to hit the earth? NASA's answer is no way.
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Up to 1.8" of Rain Causes Minor Flooding in Arvada, Wheat Ridge

Flooding on Wadsowrth Blvd, US 36 and Hwy58.
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Several feet of hail accumulated in the streets and had to be reomved by front-end loaders.
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CDOT starts work on enlarging culverts to handle mudslides in High Park burn scar in Poudre Canyon.
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Small 3.8 Earthquake in Trinidad

In the same area as a 5.3 earthquake in 2011.
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Woman Attacked by Moose at Grand Lake

A 30-year-old woman was rammed in the head by a charging moose and knocked unconscious. She was flown to a Denver hospital with skull and eye injuries.
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Deer-Motorcycle Collision near Salida

The driver was thrown off his bike but lucked out with minor injuries.
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Bear Climbs Tree near Boulder Elementary School, Gets 2 Strikes and Out

Bears have been active this year. This is the 15th bear encounter to make the news and the 4th bear euthanized by Wildlife officials in 2013.
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More Debris Flows from the High Park Burn Scar

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Vehicle Strikes Moose near Campground in Winter Park

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Bear Kills Miniature Pet Horse near Durango

Wildlife officer says bears won't attack a full size horse.
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Bear Attacks Man Walking his Dogs in Larkspur

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Adams County Man Dies of West Nile

A 53-year-old man is the second Coloradoan to die of West Nile in 2013. Total cases reported thus far are 96, on a pace similar to last year.
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Mountain Lion Poaches Alpaca, Gets Shot by Feds

Near Ridgway
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US 24 at Manitou Springs Closed after Heavy Rains

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Another Amazing Video of Landslide in China

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